Descriptive inference using large, unrepresentative nonprobability samples: An introduction for ecologists

\ua9 2023 The Authors. Ecology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Ecological Society of America.Biodiversity monitoring usually involves drawing inferences about some variable of interest across a defined landscape from observations made at a sample of locations within that landscape. If the variable of interest differs between sampled and nonsampled locations, and no mitigating action is taken, then the sample is unrepresentative and inferences drawn from it will be biased. It is possible to adjust unrepresentative samples so that they more closely resemble the wider landscape in terms of “auxiliary variables.” A good auxiliary variable is a common cause of sample inclusion and the variable of interest, and if it explains an appreciable portion of the variance in both, then inferences drawn from the adjusted sample will be closer to the truth. We applied six types of survey sample adjustment—subsampling, quasirandomization, poststratification, superpopulation modeling, a “doubly robust” procedure, and multilevel regression and poststratification—to a simple two-part biodiversity monitoring problem. The first part was to estimate the mean occupancy of the plant Calluna vulgaris in Great Britain in two time periods (1987–1999 and 2010–2019); the second was to estimate the difference between the two (i.e., the trend). We estimated the means and trend using large, but (originally) unrepresentative, samples from a citizen science dataset. Compared with the unadjusted estimates, the means and trends estimated using most adjustment methods were more accurate, although standard uncertainty intervals generally did not cover the true values. Completely unbiased inference is not possible from an unrepresentative sample without knowing and having data on all relevant auxiliary variables. Adjustments can reduce the bias if auxiliary variables are available and selected carefully, but the potential for residual bias should be acknowledged and reported

Endothelial Cell Junctional Adhesion Molecules: Role and Regulation of Expression in Inflammation

The authors are funded by the Wellcome Trust (Investigator Award to S. Nourshargh Ref: 098291/Z/12/Z). N. Reglero-Real is additionally supported by funding from the People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under REA grant agreement no [608765]

Microclimate and resource quality determine resource use in a range-expanding herbivore

The consequences of climate change for biogeographic range dynamics depend on the spatial scales at which climate influences focal species directly and indirectly via biotic interactions. An overlooked question concerns the extent to which microclimates modify specialist biotic interactions, with emergent properties for communities and range dynamics. Here, we use an in-field experiment to assess egg-laying behaviour of a range-expanding herbivore across a range of natural microclimatic conditions. We show that variation in microclimate, resource condition and individual fecundity can generate differences in egg-laying rates of almost two orders of magnitude in an exemplar species, the brown argus butterfly (Aricia agestis). This within-site variation in fecundity dwarfs variation resulting from differences in average ambient temperatures among populations. Although higher temperatures did not reduce female selection for host plants in good condition, the thermal sensitivities of egg-laying behaviours have the potential to accelerate climate-driven range expansion by increasing egg-laying encounters with novel hosts in increasingly suitable microclimates. Understanding the sensitivity of specialist biotic interactions to microclimatic variation is, therefore, critical to predict the outcomes of climate change across species’ geographical ranges, and the resilience of ecological communities

Linking inter-annual variation in environment, phenology, and abundance for a montane butterfly community (article)

This is the final version. Available from the Ecological Society of America via the DOI in this record. The dataset associated with this article is located in ORE at: https://doi.org/10.24378/exe.1963Climate change has caused widespread shifts in species’ phenology, but the consequences for population and community dynamics remain unclear because of uncertainty regarding the species-specific drivers of phenology and abundance, and the implications for synchrony among interacting species. Here, we develop a statistical model to quantify inter-annual variation in phenology and abundance over an environmental gradient, and use it to identify potential drivers of phenology and abundance in co-occurring species. We fit the model to counts of 10 butterfly species with single annual generations over a mountain elevation gradient, as an exemplar system in which temporally limited availability of biotic resources and favorable abiotic conditions impose narrow windows of seasonal activity. We estimate parameters describing changes in abundance, and the peak time and duration of the flight period, over ten years (2004–2013) and across twenty sample locations (930–2,050 m) in central Spain. We also use the model outputs to investigate relationships of phenology and abundance with temperature and rainfall. Annual shifts in phenology were remarkably consistent among species, typically showing earlier flight periods during years with warm conditions in March or May–June. In contrast, inter-annual variation in relative abundance was more variable among species, and generally less well associated with climatic conditions. Nevertheless, warmer temperatures in June were associated with increased relative population growth in three species, and five species had increased relative population growth in years with earlier flight periods. These results suggest that broadly coherent interspecific changes to phenology could help to maintain temporal synchrony in community dynamics under climate change, but that the relative composition of communities may vary due to interspecific inconsistency in population dynamic responses to climate change. However, it may still be possible to predict abundance change for species based on a robust understanding of relationships between their population dynamics and phenology, and the environmental drivers of both.Royal SocietyNatural Environment Research Counci

Histiocytoid cardiomyopathy and microphthalmia with linear skin defects syndrome: phenotypes linked by truncating variants in NDUFB11

Variants in NDUFB11, which encodes a structural component of complex I of the mitochondrial respiratory chain (MRC), were recently independently reported to cause histiocytoid cardiomyopathy (histiocytoid CM) and microphthalmia with linear skin defects syndrome (MLS syndrome). Here we report an additional case of histiocytoid CM, which carries a de novo nonsense variant in NDUFB11 (ENST00000276062.8: c.262C > T; p.[Arg88*]) identified using whole-exome sequencing (WES) of a family trio. An identical variant has been previously reported in association with MLS syndrome. The case we describe here lacked the diagnostic features of MLS syndrome, but a detailed clinical comparison of the two cases revealed significant phenotypic overlap. Heterozygous variants in HCCS (which encodes an important mitochondrially targeted protein) and COX7B, which, like NDUFB11, encodes a protein of the MRC, have also previously been identified in MLS syndrome including a case with features of both MLS syndrome and histiocytoid CM. However, a systematic review of WES data from previously published histiocytoid CM cases, alongside four additional cases presented here for the first time, did not identify any variants in these genes. We conclude that NDUFB11 variants play a role in the pathogenesis of both histiocytoid CM and MLS and that these disorders are allelic (genetically related)

Development of a generic activities model of command and control

This paper reports on five different models of command and control. Four different models are reviewed: a process model, a contextual control model, a decision ladder model and a functional model. Further to this, command and control activities are analysed in three distinct domains: armed forces, emergency services and civilian services. From this analysis, taxonomies of command and control activities are developed that give rise to an activities model of command and control. This model will be used to guide further research into technological support of command and control activities

Microclimate and resource quality determine resource use in a range-expanding herbivore

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the Royal Society via the DOI in this recordData accessibility: The supporting data are available via the Dryad repository at https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.3ffbg79j1 [46]. The supporting R code is available via Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4898844 [47]. The data are provided in the electronic supplementary material [67].The consequences of climate change for biogeographic range dynamics depend on the spatial scales at which climate influences focal species directly and indirectly via biotic interactions. An overlooked question concerns the extent to which microclimates modify specialist biotic interactions, with emergent properties for communities and range dynamics. Here, we use an in-field experiment to assess egg-laying behaviour of a range-expanding herbivore across a range of natural microclimatic conditions. We show that variation in microclimate, resource condition and individual fecundity can generate differences in egg-laying rates of almost two orders of magnitude in an exemplar species, the brown argus butterfly (Aricia agestis). This within-site variation in fecundity dwarfs variation resulting from differences in average ambient temperatures among populations. Although higher temperatures did not reduce female selection for host plants in good condition, the thermal sensitivities of egg-laying behaviours have the potential to accelerate climate-driven range expansion by increasing egg-laying encounters with novel hosts in increasingly suitable microclimates. Understanding the sensitivity of specialist biotic interactions to microclimatic variation is, therefore, critical to predict the outcomes of climate change across species' geographical ranges, and the resilience of ecological communities.Natural Environment Research Council (NERC

"Asthma can take over your life but having the right support makes that easier to deal with." Informing research priorities by exploring the barriers and facilitators to asthma control: a qualitative analysis of survey data.

BACKGROUND: Involving patients and the public in research prioritisation is important. Cochrane Airways works with authors to produce systematic reviews of evidence related to chronic airways disease. Cochrane Airways has undertaken activities to identify research priorities, including workshops with stakeholders and consultation with experts. We present the findings of an online survey, designed to align our work with the priorities of people affected by asthma. METHODS: We promoted a survey comprising open-ended questions via social media to people affected by asthma. We compiled the free-text responses and conducted an exploratory thematic analysis to identify important barriers and facilitators to asthma control. We triangulated findings with other research prioritisation activities to produce new review questions. RESULTS: We received 57 survey responses. Eight main themes emerged, most encompassing both facilitators and barriers: attitudes and knowledge; financial costs; environmental factors and triggers; healthcare systems; lifestyle factors; medication; self-care; and support. Barriers were more frequently mentioned than facilitators and many related to healthcare systems. CONCLUSIONS: These findings offer valuable insights into the challenges faced by individuals affected by asthma in the UK, and possibly further afield. We developed a list of priority reviews based on what was said by people in this survey and at a workshop. This demonstrates the real impact that people affected by asthma have on the research agenda of Cochrane Airways. Over the next 2-3 years we will produce reviews that address some of these questions hopefully leading to health benefits